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How Do You Determine Whether The Earth Is Warming Up?

Tuesday, October 16, 3:30PM – 5PM
POB 6.304

Juan M. Restrepo

How does one determine whether the high summer temperatures in Moscow of a few years ago was an extreme climatic fluctuation or the result of a systematic global warming trend? How does one perform an analysis of the causes of this summer's high temperatures in the US, if climate variability is poorly constrained?

It is only under exceptional circumstances that one can determine whether a climate signal belongs to a particular statistical distribution. In fact, climate signals are rarely "statistical;" there is usually no way to obtain enough field data to produce a trend or tendency, based upon data alone. There are other challenges to obtaining a trend: inherent multi-scale manifestations, nonlinearities, history.

In fact, the whole science of climate variability and many non-equilibrium physics outcomes, depend critically on how one determines an underlying trend.

We propose a trend or tendency methodology that does not make use of a parametric or a statistical assumption. The method proposed is capable of dealing with multi-scale time series. Moreover, the method also yields nonlinear/non-Gaussian model surrogates capable of generating time series with the same stochastic properties.

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